Matt Chatham | Contributing Writer
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Since November 2011, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a new report on Iran, some news outlets and commentators have made such a hoopla over the ensuing developments that one might be convinced that this was a revelation for the international community. Nevertheless, Iran’s forays into nuclear power stretch back to well before 2011.
From the 1950s until near the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Iran attempted to utilize nuclear power for civilian purposes, with significant aid from the West. However, just prior to and especially after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which resulted in an Islamist regime coming to power, suspicions arose about Iran’s nuclear intentions despite its near-immediate signature in 1968, of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. After the revolution and withdrawal of foreign supports, Iran’s nuclear program may have staggered, but in 2002, it was revealed to the public that Iran had continued clandestine development since at least the mid-1980s (which happens to be the time that Israel’s nuclear capabilities were publicized), though this was no surprise to U.S. intelligence.
Even after significant investigation and disclosure the IAEA, which is charged with upholding the NPT, deplored continued lack of transparency and felt that it could not certify Iran’s nuclear program as entirely civilian. According to a 2007, U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), it is likely that Iran was attempting to develop nuclear weapons until 2003, when it was halted due to international pressure and the Iraq War. This Estimate was, according to The Cable, superseded by the (classified) 2011 NIE that purportedly focused much more on the threat posed by enrichment alone. The 2010 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review Report stated that Iran’s behavior had destabilized the region and could lead to an arms race, though there is no mention of Israel’s yet-unacknowledged nuclear stockpile anywhere in the document. In its latest report on Iran, the IAEA reiterated its concern for the program’s “possible military dimensions.” The Agency claims to have received and collected intelligence that would point to a nuclear weapons program, such as modeling of nuclear explosions, high uranium enrichment, and development of detonators and “neutron initiators,” small capsules with the potential to spark a nuclear reaction if compressed. Appended to this report is a graphic showing that the Agency regards Iran’s nuclear payload capability to be “likely,” the highest rating possible.
Since 2006, the UN Security Council has passed several resolutions on non-proliferation, calling bans on several categories of material, as well as a travel ban and assets freeze on various Iranian organizations and individuals. These have been repeated in several nations, including the U.S., which has pursued sanctions on Iran for decades. In essence, Iran’s lack of transparency, in violation of the NPT and relevant agreements, is alarming to many, particularly those such as the U.S. and Israel. While it is reasonable to enforce an international treaty, it must also be done in a responsible manner so as not to harm the people of the nation. A nuclear-free world is the ideal, but many of the main actors in this situation fail to live up to it.
